thank you for your overall comprehensive-sophisticated analysis. what i do not understand that you have omitted or just did not consider the recently started investigations and procedures by the SEC (which was actually overdue in my opinion). There a only handful of ICOs (1–2%), which are really delivering numbers, data, products, and even at least some minimal rewards, “dividends”, and return of investment (spectre.ai, SHP etc. ).
The majority of all these projects are based on scams, fraud, or mere incompetence. Now that the the SEC has finally taken action (because of failed KYC, non-registered securities etc.) , many responsible, accountable, and liable ICO-CEOs and whale-investors have started selling off their bags, included in those are naturally BTC, too. A chain-reaction (human nature usually follows the herd of sheep…psychology, emotions) is the result, selling off more and more…which drives the price down further. I call this logical deduction in my analysis. On top of that, we are on the bottom of a natural cycle somewhere between panic and despondency…with marginal market-capitalization in the crypto-market (drop on a hot stone). this “party” will end soon hopefully for all these fraudulent and/or incompetent “blockchain”-hyped ICO-sellers, and the few ethical, serious, and committed teams of the handful of projects can deliver substance and return of investment for their investors.